Thursday, June 4, 2009

Zero Growth, only just!

Yesterday the latest GDP figures were released. Interestingly, the last three quarterly growth rates sum to zero. If you use the original Sept 08 estimate their sum is -0.1.

Yesterday's release demonstrate why we should not rely solely on numbers. They also demonstrate why we shouldn't rely on arbitrary definitions. The debate as to whether we are in a recession or not is futile. Irrespective of the numbers and rules, unemployment is set to rise, businesses are struggling, confidence is down etc.

I believe, although we may not be technically in a recession, we are certainly in the midst of a recessionary environment.

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